Poll: Hodes may be in trouble

22nd September 2008

 

Poll: Hodes may be in trouble

 

By Aaron Blake

Rep. Paul Hodes was supposed to be the safer of the two Democratic freshmen in New Hampshire’s House delegation, but a new GOP-sponsored poll shows he could face a tough race, too.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and Republican candidate Jennifer Horn have released a study showing her trailing Hodes just 43-39, within the margin of error.

 

The Public Opinion Strategies poll surveyed 300 likely voters and was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday of last week. The margin of error was 5.7 percent.

Horn is not considered one of the top GOP recruits in the country and has raised a relatively paltry $120,000 through late August. She defeated state Sen. Bob Clegg in a primary earlier this month.

Hodes won the seat from Rep. Charlie Bass (R) in 2006. His district leans more Democratic than Rep. Carol Shea-Porter’s (D), going 52-47 for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004, and Shea-Porter faces a more well-known and better-funded candidate in former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R).

A July survey by the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center showed few people knowing who Horn was and Hodes leading her 43-23. The same poll showed Shea-Porter trailing Bradley by six points, 46-40.

Katie List, a spokeswoman for the state Democratic Party, said national Republicans paid for the poll because Horn will be a “rubber stamp” for them in Congress.

“We don’t believe either their numbers or their rhetoric, although I know Paul Hodes is working hard to earn every vote in New Hampshire in November,” List said.

 

Poll: Hodes may be in trouble